Below you will find the Columbus strategy highlights for this month.  For more insights and a detailed discussion, including to get the monthly portfolio allocations, please download the report.

Conflicting Signals

  • After a spectacular V-shaped recovery, it’s not immediately obvious where the equity markets are going next.
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell stated that the economy is now sending ‘conflicting signals’.
  • Some pundits like Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital are convinced this is a sucker’s rally and the bear market started last year.
  • Columbus got out of stocks and shifted to a prudent allocation in late October last year.
  • Although the equity market rally recovered all of December’s losses, Columbus currently prefers to seek opportunities elsewhere for the time being and keep a tight lid on risks during this uncertain period.
  • For more insights on the behavior of market tops and how to proactively manage risks during these transitions, please read our special report published on October 14, “Keep Calm and Follow the Data“.  If you don’t have it, please reply to this email and we will be happy to send you a copy.

To learn more about how Columbus navigates this market, please download the report and read the discussion in section 6.

Please don’t hesitate to contact me should you have any questions.

Best regards,

Jean-Marc and the Laplace Insights team

Backtesting Strategies & Overfitting

Strategy backtesting is often used to test an investment strategy from historical stock or ETF information (usually price).  The belief is that if a strategy performed well in the past, then it should continue to perform well in the future.

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